With the number of applicants on the rise, and state funding dropping sharply, Florida high school graduates may find themselves shut out of the University of Florida and other public state universities when it comes time to go to college.
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Florida's 11 public state universities face $147 million in cuts this year.
For 2008-09, the cuts could reach $171 million.
UF's projected budget shortfall for 2008 is close to $47 million.
Tuition covers just 25 percent of the cost of a university student's education; the state funds the remaining 75 percent.
State university enrollment has increased an average of 3.2 percent a year. UF enrollment is 50,000.
UF had 28,000 applicants for fall; 6,600 will be admitted.
If the state university system freezes enrollment at 300,000, about 40,000 qualified students would be denied admission by 2012.SOURCES: Board of Governors, State University System, UF Provost Janie Fouke and ENLACE Florida
As many as 60,000 qualified Florida students could find their applications turned down by the state's 11 universities, according to a report from ENLACE Florida, or Engaging Latino Communities for Education. The state education group has recently taken a closer look at the potential effects of budget cutbacks on higher education.
The report, "Higher Education in Florida on the Brink," warns that "access to higher education is at risk for all Florida students." Even Bright Futures scholarship holders and community college graduates may find there's no room for them within the state university system, according to ENLACE.
"It is a capacity issue and it is a resource issue," said UF Provost Janie Fouke. "We just don't have the capacity to keep up at the rate the young people are coming at us."
If the state universities choose to freeze enrollment at 300,000 spots, the report predicts, about 40,000 qualified students would be denied admission by the year 2012. In what it calls a "worst-case scenario," the numbers of students shut out of a college education could reach 60,000 by 2012.
And if universities are prohibited from admitting any more students than the Legislature provides funding to educate, enrollment caps could become a reality. Tuition covers just 25 percent of the cost of a university student's education in Florida; the state funds the remaining 75 percent.
UF is shutting the admissions window for fall today, according to Fouke. UF had 28,000 applicants; 6,600 will be admitted.
"We are certainly (saying) 'yes' to fewer people," she warned. "The number of applicants is soaring, but our capacity has not changed."
Fouke said the number of applicants from community colleges, including Santa Fe Community College, is also on the rise. Those who have earned an associate of arts degree are guaranteed admission to one of the state's universities.
It may not be UF. And they may not be admitted to the college of their choice.
"If they want to enter a major at UF where there is no capacity, such as nursing, we cannot take them," Fouke said.
By state estimates, Florida's universities face $147 million in cuts this year, followed by as much as $171 million in 2008-09. The Board of Governors, which oversees all public universities, has warned them that they may have to freeze or even reduce their enrollment if they do not find additional funding.
Ret Thomas, a guidance counselor at Buchholz High School, said that even without the current budget cutbacks, admission to the four-year universities has become progressively more competitive and more selective each year.
"Budget restraints, if it forces them to lower their enrollment cap, will just add insult to injury," Thomas said.
"Even without budget restraints, admissions directors of the most highly selective state universities - Florida, (the University of Central Florida), (Florida State University) and (the University of South Florida) - are saying, 'You'll be surprised at some of the kids who may not get in,' " Thomas said Monday.
"A kid who'd be a borderline admission two or three years ago is absolutely a no-go now," he said.
As a guidance counselor, Thomas recommends that every student have a backup plan, rather than counting on getting into one particular college or university.
The message, according to Thomas, is clear: It is harder and harder to get into state schools, and the competition is keener every year.
"More kids are taking a realistic look at other state schools, even if they were born and raised in Gainesville and have a lot of Gator in them," he said.
Thomas' advice is echoed by Bill Goodman, supervisor of guidance and student services for the School Board of Alachua County.
"My best piece of advice would be look at your educational credentials and have two or three schools in mind as you shop for the school to match your needs," Goodman said.
Not all high-wage, high-demand jobs require a bachelor's degree, Goodman said. And UF is not the best choice for every high school student, he added.
"These days, anyone who puts all their eggs in one basket is not doing themselves a favor," he said.
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